Why has public opinion shifted about gun control? As my colleagues at Pew Research Center have documented elsewhere, some of this is related to politics, as Republicans have become far more supportive of gun rights during the Obama years. The rise in support for gun rights has also spanned many other regional and demographic groups.
But there may be another factor behind this shift: Americans’ changing perceptions about crime. Over the past 25 years or so, there has been a divergence between American perceptions about crime and actual crime rates. And those who worried about crime had favored stricter gun control; now, they tend to desire keeping the laws as they are or loosening gun control. In short, we are at a moment when most Americans believe crime rates are rising and when most believe gun ownership – not gun control – makes people safer.
Found yesterday on Reddit, here’s the transcript of a TED talk by Gary Slutkin, a doctor who’s traveled the world treating outbreaks and epidemics.
I’m a physician trained in infectious diseases, and following my training, I moved to Somalia from San Francisco. And my goodbye greeting from the chief of infectious diseases at San Francisco General was, “Gary, this is the biggest mistake you’ll ever make.”
But I landed in a refugee situation that had a million refugees in 40 camps, and there were six of us doctors. There were many epidemics there. My responsibilities were largely related to tuberculosis, and then we got struck by an epidemic of cholera. So it was the spread of tuberculosis and the spread of cholera that I was responsible for inhibiting. And in order to do this work, we, of course, because of the limitation in health workers, had to recruit refugees to be a specialized new category of health worker.Following three years of work in Somalia, I got picked up by the World Health Organization, and got assigned to the epidemics of AIDS. My primary responsibility was Uganda, but also I worked in Rwanda and Burundi and Zaire, now Congo, Tanzania, Malawi, and several other countries. And my last assignment there was to run a unit called intervention development, which was responsible for designing interventions.
After 10 years of working overseas, I was exhausted. I really had very little left. I had been traveling to one country after another. I was emotionally feeling very isolated. I wanted to come home. I’d seen a lot of death, in particular epidemic death, and epidemic death has a different feel to it. It’s full of panic and fear, and I’d heard the women wailing and crying in the desert. And I wanted to come home and take a break and maybe start over.
Obviously this guy has been in the trenches and has tons of hands on experience fighting threats at a population level. He’s seen the horrors of the third world and knows what it takes to address them. And more than that, he’s actually solved problems. After years of selfless service, he comes home:
I was not aware of any epidemic problems in America. In fact, I wasn’t aware of any problems in America. In fact — seriously. And in fact I would visit friends of mine, and I noticed that they had water that came right into their homes. How many of you have such a situation? (Laughter) And some of them, many of them actually, had water that came into more than one room. And I noticed that they would move this little thermoregulatory device to change the temperature in their home by one degree or two degrees. And now I do that.
And I really didn’t know what I would do, but friends of mine began telling me about children shooting other children with guns. And I asked the question, what are you doing about it? What are you in America doing about it? And there were two essential explanations or ideas that were prevalent.
On one hand, this is pretty funny because he’s just come from places where people are experiencing actual medical horrors… and he comes home and is greeted by people who have no idea what an actual epidemic looks like. But wait…
Ruh roh. I know what you are thinking: “Is he going to seriously say that gun violence is an epidemic? That guns are a virus?”
And one was punishment. And this I had heard about before. We who had worked in behavior knew that punishment was something that was discussed but also that it was highly overvalued. It was not a main driver of behavior, nor was it a main driver of behavior change. And besides that, it reminded meof ancient epidemics that were previously completely misunderstood because the science hadn’t been there before, epidemics of plague or typhus or leprosy, where the prevalent ideas were that there werebad people or bad humors or bad air, and widows were dragged around the moat, and dungeons were part of the solution.
The other explanation or, in a way, the solution suggested, is please fix all of these things: the schools, the community, the homes, the families, everything. And I’d heard this before as well. I’d called this the “everything” theory, or EOE: Everything On Earth. But we’d also realized in treating other processes and problems that sometimes you don’t need to treat everything.
IE, what we’re doing now isn’t working. Jail time doesn’t stop violence. You can’t solve every problem.
And so the sense that I had was there was a giant gap here. The problem of violence was stuck, and this has historically been the case in many other issues.Diarrheal diseases had been stuck. Malaria had been stuck. Frequently, a strategy has to be rethought. It’s not as if I had any idea what it would look like,but there was a sense that we would have to do something with new categories of workers and something having to do with behavior change and something having to do with public education.
This is the interesting part. The smooth segue from the complaint of ‘gun violence’ (specifically “children shooting other children with guns”) into violence as a whole:
But I began to ask questions and search out the usual things that I had been exploring before, like, what do the maps look like? What do the graphs look like? What does the data look like? And the maps of violence in most U.S. cities looked like this. There was clustering. This reminded me of clustering that we’d seen also in infectious epidemics, for example cholera. And then we looked at the maps, and the maps showed this typical wave upon wave upon wave,because all epidemics are combinations of many epidemics. And it also looked like infectious epidemics. And then we asked the question, well what really predicts a case of violence? And it turns out that the greatest predictor of a case of violence is a preceding case of violence. Which also sounds like, if there is a case of flu, someone gave someone a case of flu, or a cold, or the greatest risk factor of tuberculosis is having been exposed to tuberculosis.
This is extremely valuable insight. He’s not working from feelings and trying to find facts to fit them. He’s looking at the data and examining how it occurs and what patterns are displayed.
He didn’t go “I think guns are the problem here!” He’s not focusing on a symptom and trying to treat it by itself, which is typical for the antigun that believes “remove guns, problem solved”
So he outlines the multipronged way that stops actual epidemics:
And so there’s good news about this, though, because there’s a way to reverse epidemics, and there’s really only three things that are done to reverse epidemics, and the first of it is interrupting transmission. In order to interrupt transmission, you need to detect and find first cases. […] In this case, it’s someone who’s very angry because someone looked at his girlfriend or owes him money,and you can find workers and train them into these specialized categories.
And the second thing to do, of course, is to prevent further spread, that means to find who else has been exposed, but may not be spreading so much right now like someone with a smaller case of T.B., or someone who is just hanging out in the neighborhoods, but in the same group, and then they need to be, in a way, managed as well, particular to the specific disease process.
And then the third part, the shifting the norms, and that means a whole bunch of community activities, remodeling, public education, and then you’ve got what you might call group immunity. And that combination of factors is how the AIDS epidemic in Uganda was very successfully reversed.
Which all makes perfect sense. So lets cut to the chase, how does this work in practice:
And so what we decided to do in the year 2000 is kind of put this together in a way by hiring in new categories of workers, the first being violence interruptors.And then we would put all of this into place in one neighborhood in what was the worst police district in the United States at the time. So violence interruptors hired from the same group, credibility, trust, access, just like the health workers in Somalia, but designed for a different category, and trained in persuasion,cooling people down, buying time, reframing. And then another category of worker, the outreach workers, to keep people in a way on therapy for six to 24 months. Just like T.B., but the object is behavior change. And then a bunch of community activities for changing norms.
Now our first experiment of this resulted in a 67-percent drop in shootings and killings in the West Garfield neighborhood of Chicago.
Eureaka! Success! 67% drop in shootings in the area ranked #1 for violent crime in Chicago is incredible, no matter how you look at it.
But of course, the funders said, “Wait a second, do it again.” And so we had to then, fortunately, get the funds to repeat this experience, and this is one of the next four neighborhoods that had a 45-percent drop in shootings and killings.And since that time, this has been replicated 20 times. There have been independent evaluations supported by the Justice Department and by the CDC and performed by Johns Hopkins that have shown 30-to-50-percent and 40-to-70-percent reductions in shootings and killings using this new method. In fact, there have been three independent evaluations of this now.
So not only does it work, it works repeatedly, and…
Many of the major cities in the U.S., including New York City and Baltimore and Kansas City, their health departments are running this now. Chicago and New Orleans, the health departments are having a very large role in this. This is being embraced more by law enforcement than it had been years ago. Trauma centers and hospitals are doing their part in stepping up. And the U.S. Conference of Mayors has endorsed not only the approach but the specific model. Where there’s really been uptake even faster is in the international environment, where there’s a 55-percent drop in the first neighborhood in Puerto Rico, where interruptions are just beginning in Honduras, where the strategy has been applied in Kenya for the recent elections, and where there have been 500 interruptions in Iraq.
And it’s working everywhere it is applied, even in third world or war torn countries. It has measurable success data, repeatable information that doesn’t rely on magic. Unlike gun control.
Instead of narrowly focusing on guns as if they are the problem, he rightly identified that the violence is the problem, no matter what method is used to carry it out.
If the anti gun movement really cared about violence, they’d work to address these issues. Instead they just want to ban guns that are used in less than 3% of all crimes, high capacity magazines, and ignore that lives could be saved.
Politicians aren’t interested in these programs either, because they require work, and someone has to pay for all that work.
You can be sure that this isn’t going to make the rounds or garner worldwide media attention.
Reason’s always been pro-gun and a source for rational discourse when it comes to debunking the various flawed arguments gun control proponents come up with. They have a new article out addressing the many issues with the antigun tactic of “driving the numbers down” for Defensive Gun Uses:
Stringent gun control advocates are fond of underestimating the possible importance of owning a gun. For example, a pair of anti-gun activists took to Politico in January to claim that the gun rights community is deluded about the likely number of defensive uses of guns by American citizens. Such defensive uses are known as DGUs (“defensive gun uses”) in the lingo.
Many in the gun rights community believe that a privately owned gun is used in legitimate self-defense over 2 million times a year in America. This figure arose initially from the survey work done in 1993 by Florida State University criminologists Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz.
The entire article is a must read and goes into detail about common errors and misconceptions.